The cost-effectiveness of palivizumab in infants with cystic fibrosis in the Canadian setting: A decision analysis model.

BACKGROUND: Children with cystic fibrosis (CF) are at higher risk of severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, which can lead to a decline in lung function. A monoclonal antibody, palivizumab (PMB), effectively prevents RSV hospitalizations; however, the high cost of PMB, approximately C$10,000 per patient per RSV season, limits its widespread use. We assess the cost-effectiveness of PMB prophylaxis in CF children less than 2 y of age from the Canadian healthcare payer's perspective. METHODS: In 2014, a Markov cohort model of CF disease and infant RSV infections in the Canadian setting was developed based on literature data. Infants were treated with monthly PMB injections over the 5-month RSV season. Lifetime health outcomes, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and 2013 $CAD costs, discounted at 5%, were estimated. Findings are summarized as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and budget impact. Deterministic sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: Implementation of a hypothetical Canadian RSV prophylaxis program resulted in ICERs of C$652,560 (all CF infants) and C$157,332 (high-risk CF infants) per QALY gained and an annual budget impact of C$1,400,000 (all CF infants) and C$285,000 (high-risk CF infants). The analysis was highly sensitive to the probability of severe RSV, the degree of lung deterioration following infection, and the cost of PMB. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest PMB is not cost-effective in Canada by commonly used thresholds. However, given the rarity of CF and relatively small budget impact, consideration may be given for the selective use of PMB for immunoprophylaxis of RSV in high-risk CF infants on a case-by-case scenario basis.

Estimation of the underlying burden of pertussis in adolescents and adults in Southern Ontario, Canada.

Despite highly successful vaccination programs and high vaccine uptake, both endemic pertussis and periodic pertussis outbreaks continue to occur. The under-recognized role of adolescents and adults in disease transmission, due to waning immunity following natural infection and vaccination, and reduced likelihood of correct diagnosis, may contribute to pertussis persistence. We constructed a mathematical model to describe the transmission of pertussis in Southern Ontario in both pre-vaccine and vaccine eras, to estimate the underlying burden of pertussis in the population. The model was well calibrated using the best available data on pertussis in the pre-vaccination (1880-1929) and vaccination (1993-2004) eras in Ontario. Pertussis under-reporting by age group was estimated by comparing model-projected incidence to reported laboratory-confirmed cases for Greater Toronto. Best-fit model estimates gave a basic reproductive number of approximately 10.6, (seasonal range 9.9 to 11.5). Under-reporting increased with age, and approximately >95% of infections in children were caused by infections in persons with waning immunity to pertussis following prior infection or vaccination. A well-calibrated model suggests that under-recognized cases of pertussis in older individuals are likely to be an important driver of ongoing pertussis outbreaks in children. Model projections strongly support enhancement of booster vaccination efforts in adults.